Scenario testing agentTest fifty scenarios. Pick one with confidence.
Sam simulates channel shifts, spend changes, and new strategies in seconds. Every scenario priced against Felix's forecasts before a dollar moves.
What Sam ships
Five capabilities. One scenario workflow.
Each capability maps to a specific job: simulate the budget, find the elastic channel, model the risk, score the recommendation, and stay aware of the rest of the workforce.
Fifty scenarios in seconds
Monte Carlo simulation across channel splits, spend curves, and timing shifts. One question becomes fifty priced outcomes.
- Combinatorial budget mixes, not single-axis tests
- Each scenario priced with a confidence band
- Top five surfaced; the rest are inspectable
Example. 70/30 Meta/Google asked; 65/35, 60/40, and TikTok-15 also tested
Elasticity discovery
Sam identifies which channel actually responds to spend changes and which one is already saturated.
- Per-channel response curves fit nightly
- Saturation points flagged before overspend
- Diminishing-returns thresholds surfaced per account
Example. TikTok elastic to +40%, Google Brand saturated past +8%
Risk-free what-if
Every strategy gets simulated before commitment. Upside, downside, and break-even priced before any budget moves.
- Worst-case bands, not just expected outcomes
- Cannibalization between campaigns modelled
- $0 spent before validation
Example. Doubling BFCM spend: +34% revenue, but CPMs up 2.4x, net margin down
Confidence-scored recommendations
Top five scenarios ranked by expected outcome, each with a confidence band and the assumptions behind the prediction.
- Confidence percentage per recommendation
- Assumptions visible, not hidden in the model
- Risk and reward shown side by side
Example. Shift 20% Meta to TikTok: CAC down 12% by week 6 at 87% confidence
Workforce-aware
Reads Felix's forecasts, Maya's CAC ceilings, Parker's incrementality. No silo, no manual reconciliation.
- Felix prices each scenario with current models
- Maya supplies budget caps and prior outcomes
- Parker validates which past wins were real lift
Example. +30% Meta shift requested; Felix priced it in 4 seconds with bands
A typical week
What Sam runs while the team is in standup.
One workweek, hour by hour. Specific numbers vary by account.
Mon · 8:42 AM
TestedStrategist asks: what if we shift 20% of Meta to TikTok for Q2? Maya supplies budget caps and prior TikTok outcomes; the question gets framed in seconds.
Mon · 8:42 AM
TestedSam fans out 52 variants around the question. 65/35, 60/40, 70/30 with TikTok at 10, 15, 20 percent, plus three timing curves on each.
Mon · 8:43 AM
ScoredFelix prices every variant. Each scenario gets a revenue range, a CAC range, and a confidence percentage. Eleven seconds, end to end.
Mon · 8:44 AM
ComparedTop five surfaced, side by side. Best CAC at 87 percent confidence: 65/35 Meta/TikTok with a 2-week ramp. Worst case priced too: revenue dip of 6 percent in week one.
Mon · 9:15 AM
DeliveredSam ships the recommendation to Slack with the assumption set, the confidence band, and a link to the four other ranked scenarios.
Tue · 11:02 AM
ApprovedStrategist approves the 65/35 plan. Dex builds the brief; Felix watches the actuals against Sam's prediction starting next cycle.
Wed · 4:18 PM
RecommendedCompetitor doubles spend overnight. Sam simulates 20 defensive counter-moves, ranks the top three, sends to Slack within the hour.
What's underneath
Real simulation engine. Not a recommendation wrapper.
Sam runs on Monte Carlo simulation, channel-level elasticity curves, and shared memory across the workforce. Every scenario gets priced against live forecasts, not stale benchmarks.
Felix's nightly forecasts and historical campaign outcomes from the workforce memory. Sam never simulates against stale numbers or industry averages.
Felix forecasts + reconciled campaign history
Slack for ranked recommendations and confidence bands, Slides for the strategy review deck. Format adapted to the surface and the audience.
Top five scenarios delivered within seconds of the ask
Felix prices every scenario with the current forecast model. Maya supplies CAC ceilings, prior outcomes, and budget constraints so Sam never tests a plan that violates the brand's rules.
Shared memory, not message-passing
Monte Carlo simulation across channel-level response curves. Elasticity discovery refits nightly per account; confidence bands derived from backtested forecast accuracy.
Per-account elasticity, refit nightly