How does the Email Incrementality tool work?

Enter your Klaviyo-attributed revenue, total store revenue, and optionally per-flow revenue breakdowns, AOV, repeat customer rate, paid ad revenue, and tracking-method context. Parker decomposes the Klaviyo claim into three portions using heuristic industry-research anchors and your input data: truly-incremental (revenue that only happened because of email), assisted (email helped but wasn't the only factor), and stolen-from-other-channels (revenue that would have happened anyway and was over-attributed to email). All outputs are estimates. True incrementality requires a controlled holdout test.

What is a holdout test, and why does it matter?

A holdout test randomly excludes 10-20% of your audience from receiving a specific email flow for 30-60 days, then compares purchase rates between groups. The difference reveals true incrementality. This tool does not run holdout tests; it estimates incrementality from heuristic anchor points and your data. For measured incrementality, run a holdout test in your email platform.

Why does Klaviyo over-attribute revenue?

Klaviyo's attribution model gives email credit for any purchase within a click or open window, including purchases that would have happened anyway from paid ads, organic search, direct traffic, or repeat customers acting on existing intent. The portion of Klaviyo-claimed revenue that would have happened anyway is the stolen portion this tool estimates.

What inputs sharpen the estimate?

Required: Klaviyo-attributed revenue and total store revenue. Optional inputs that move the analysis from low to high confidence: per-flow revenue breakdown (the strongest single signal), paid ad revenue, AOV, repeat customer rate, and tracking-method context. Without per-flow data, the estimate uses category averages.

How accurate is the estimate?

The estimate is directional, not measured. Industry-research anchor ranges (Welcome Flow 70-85% incremental, Abandoned Cart 30-45%, etc.) are heuristic, not predictions for your brand. Treat the result as a hypothesis to test with a holdout, not as a measurement of your actual incrementality.

What should I do after the analysis?

Use Parker's quick-win and top-insight to prioritize a holdout test on the flow with the largest estimated stolen portion. Run the holdout for 30-60 days, then compare measured incrementality against the estimate to calibrate your understanding of where Klaviyo over-attributes in your account.

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Estimate email's true incremental contribution.

Decompose Klaviyo-attributed revenue into incremental, assisted, and stolen-from-other-channels portions.

ParkerAttribution

Klaviyo-Attributed Revenue (Monthly) *

What Klaviyo reports as email-attributed revenue

Total Store Revenue (Monthly) *

From Shopify/your store platform

Industry

How do you track email conversions?

This adjusts our estimate — better tracking usually means less over-attribution.